Thursday, October 27, 2011

Life span

a simple method to estimate a life time on anything.

assume anything we encounter is at 30% to 70% of its life time. Thus the roughly end time will be 1.5 to 3 times of its current age.

The result behind is, the normalized age of everything should follow normal distribution. By mean of normalized age, we scale the age to be 1 until for everything.

Say myself, I am 27, thus, I will die some time around 45 to 80 years old.

friendship will last around this range. For 10 years old friend, can last for 5 more years, to 20 years. If I don't see a 1 week friend for more then 2 weeks, the friendship probably gone.

Thus, a healing time for losing a 1 years relationship, probably not longer than 2 years.

Ok, earth is now 4.5 billion years old, so, the end of the day is between 2 billion years to 9 billion years later.

Human exist for, say, 1 million year, it probably die after 50 kilo years later.

However, it is a very rough estimation without any further knowledge. If we meet an 100 years old man, the chance for he to die in tmr is so higher then a boy at age 10. Right?

So, put yourself as god, in such a way you can foresee the future, everything. Thus, scale the life span for everything. And it should a Radom variable and all possible age happened and it follow normal distribution.

Anyway, if you don't think it is the case, it is ok. It just a chance. But, to all my dear friends, I wish to see you, especially those are interesting and I like very much.

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