1 bottle or 3 bottles? (II)

Extend reading : 1 bottle or 3 bottles

In that article, i used the expectation of "Utility" replacing the expectation of "bottle". 

somethings wrong with this. isn't it?

because the expectation is still there. the reality only approach to the expectation when there are many many trials.

but wait, Are we really using the expectation of "Utility", or just compare the utility for different results?

if we have equal utility for both 1-sure-bottle and 1-unsure-bottle. thus, 1 side has total utility is 1 and other side is 3. in this case, since we treat both kind of bottle are the same, so, we, of course, choose to bet the 3-bottles.

So, the question is, How the uncertainly devalue the utility?

well, it may different from different people. and by only compare the total utility, we can know, if the utility for a 1-unsure-bottle is lower then 1/3, then people will not like to take the gambling.

but what is different now? i think what i say is still running around the question!

think about what is utility? it means how would you like the trade or compare different things. so, we still using "utility" replaces "bottle"!!!

we just assign a value to each bottle and then say, "hey, i like this more than that, is because the assigned value are different!" which is simple to say, "i made up a reason & regardless of the chance."

**********************************

in the game holder view point.

he has to buy many equal bottles, which has value , say, 1$. 

the cost of 1 sure-bottle is 1$, and 3-unsure-bottle is 3$, with 1/2 chance. the expectation of cost is 1.5$.

when he hold the game. the value of unsure-bottle devalue, or, relatively the sure-bottle up-value to 1.5$ for loss free.